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作物生长模型研究现状与展望

Progress and Perspective of Crop Growth Models

  • 摘要: 作物生长模型由最初的作物生长发育模型发展到农业决策支持模型,在科学研究、农业管理、政策制定等方面发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文首先回顾了作物生长模型的发展过程,并按照模型主要驱动因子,将作物生长模型分为土壤因子、光合作用因子和人为因子驱动3类并分别进行了归纳阐述;然后对典型的模型分别从模型模块、时空尺度、可模拟的作物类型等方面进行列表式对比;并对作物生长模型在气候变化评估、生产管理决策支持、资源管理优化等方面的应用,以及面临的极端条件、复杂农业景观和模型复杂度等挑战进行了总结,在此基础上认为遥感数据同化和孪生农场是其发展方向。

     

    Abstract: Crop growth models have evolved from initial crop development models to agricultural decision support models, playing an increasingly important role in scientific research, agricultural management, and policy-making. In the paper the development process of crop growth models was firstly reviewed. Based on the main driving factors, the models were categorized into three types: soil factors, photosynthetic factors, and human factors, and comprehensive introductions to each category were provided. Then a comparative analysis of typical models was presented from ten aspects, including model modules, spatiotemporal scales, and range of crop types that can be simulated. Furthermore, the applications of crop growth models in climate change assessment, production management decision support, and resource management optimization were discussed. The challenges faced by these models were also highlighted, such as extreme conditions, complex agricultural landscapes, and model complexity. Based on the comprehensive discussions, two promising directions for the future development of crop growth models were identified: remote sensing data assimilation and twin farming. Remote sensing data assimilation techniques have the potential to significantly enhance the spatial range and accuracy of the simulations, providing more precise information for agriculture. Twin farming, on the other hand, offers virtual replicas of actual farming systems, enabling comprehensive analysis and optimization of crop growth. These research findings provide valuable insights for selecting and improving crop growth models, driving advancements in this field.

     

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